Amon Sul planning thread

[Valandil]

I'm not sure that befriending Hurgon will do the pair a LOT of good. After all, Celebrindol isn't going to give him the key to the Palantir Room. ;D

[Duilin]

No, I don't think befriending Hurgon would be a terribly useful manoeuvre. But they all like to drink...

BTW, does Celebrindol himself have the key to the Palantir room? Wouldn't that be his father-in-law's (iirc - his father-in-law i s the warden, no?) job?

[Duilin]

A new thought, with respect to relations between Gimilbeth and the Cardolanis. I think I noted before that Tarnendur is a potential claimant to the throne of Cardolan, but one who has few advantages to recommend him to any of the factions in Cardolan. However, Amantir would be a very plausible potential compromise candidate. A younger son, he has no hopes of inheritance of his own, and thus would not bring the possibility of annexation. As an untried youth, though, he wouldn't be threatening in the way that Galphant as king would be, and all the Cardolani leaders would think that they could continue to run the kingdom as they please for some time with such a king.

Alternately, Beleg's younger brother (whose name I don't remember), would be a plausible candidate for similar reasons, but presumably Malvegil and Celebrindol will be much less likely to support such a candidacy. (On the other hand, he's actually at Amon Sûl, no?) Some sort of marriage alliances (perhaps Galphant has a daughter of near marriageable age, in addition to his son), would also be in order.

Anyway, just to expand the realm of possibilities. Either of the younger sons would seem like ideal candidates to, in particular, Orogost. Orogost can't expect to continue running the kingdom the way he has been if an experienced, mature king like Galphant comes in. And he isn't so close to Arthedain that he could feel completely comfortable in his position if Cardolan is reunited with Arthedain. But a young, inexperienced king would seem perfect for Orogost, and such an option is for both of the other factions less bad than the alternative (Galphant and his father are dubious about reunification; the Arthedain types are most worried about the over proud Princes of Baranduin as king - they would probably be especially amenable to Beleg's younger brother's candidacy).

Anyway, I think I'll explore this a bit. More possibilities means more fun, surely?

[Gordis]

I like it - and I guess Gimilbeth will like it as well... (I mean Amantir, of course!)

As for Beleg's younger brother, I don't think Malvegil will agree. (Neither would he agree to Amantir, of course). Giving the Cardolani Beleg's brother would mean dividing Arnor again, now when there is the real possibility to reunite it.

But I like the ideas. More fun, surely!

[Duilin]

Obviously Malvegil prefers Malvegil as king of Cardolan to his grandson. But if it's a choice between his grandson and either a) Galphant; or b) Amantir, that's a different story...it all depends on the strength of the various factions within Cardolan. If Orogost and Galphant's groups ally together, Beleg's brother might be the best the pro-Arthedain faction can manage. Of course, Malvegil making this impossible, even if that means, in the short term, that no one from Arthedain gets to be king of Cardolan, is not without precedent in the history of such things. That Belecthor and Adrahil might suggest it, though, seems plausible.

[Valandil]

Duilin - I tend to doubt that the Cardolani's should have any preference for a younger son of the lines of either Arthedain or Rhudaur to become their king, as opposed to just reuniting.

For one - that means each major player in Cardolan still has to give up being King himself. For another, it's still an outsider coming in. And an unknown. Nobody could be certain who would be his friends.

Maybe worst of all though - in both cases, should the older brother die, the younger brother (Aramacil or Amantir) - would then be in line to inherit their father's kingdom as well as their own, and voila - instant reunification - just what some are trying to avoid in your scenario.

[Duilin]

Val, in response to your points, first some description of the situation:

Nobody in Cardolan has ambitions of their own except Galphant. Any other prospective candidate would be an outsider - Malvegil, a heretofore unknown descendant of Caryontar, a cadet.

As noted, two of the Cardolani factions have clear preferences - one supports Galphant, the other reunification under Malvegil.

Now, two points here.

One is that Orogost, who is actually running the kingdom at the moment, hasn't committed to either of the factions. As I've conceived Orogost, he really likes running the kingdom. Reuniting with Arthedain is clearly going to put his position in danger, while Galphant as king is likely going to want to accumulate more power into his own hands at Orogost's expense. However uncertain the actual policies of King Aramacil or King Amantir would be, a young, inexperienced king seems, after the regency status quo, to be the best possible result for Orogost.

Second point is that, with Aramacil at least, the pro-Arthedain faction could be fairly certain of his good will. Adrahil, at least, is personally acquainted with the Arthedain royal family, and probably knows Aramacil fairly well, as he lived in Fornost at one point. And Belecthor will go along, I think. Now, they would both prefer to acclaim Malvegil, but politics is the art of the possible. If the Prince is inutterably opposed to reunification, it might be better to take out the option, in Aramacil, than to hold out for the whole thing.

Now, relating to Galphant, I don't think he'd much like Aramacil, for the reasons that you posit, but he's also eager to avoid a) a civil war, and b) reunification. The desire to avoid a civil war is stronger than his own personal ambition, so he might accept a compromise. My thought is also that he has a daughter that he can marry off to whichever young prince, so as to increase his own personal influence.

In terms of instant reunification, I don't think this would be seen as terribly likely. Eventual reunification, sure - Beleg or Daurendil might not have any children, and the crowns might be united then, but I don't think this would especially worry anyone in the short term. In the short term, Tarnendur is getting older, but still has some years left in him, Celebrindol has a long time to go, Daurendil and Beleg are young and healthy, and the kingdoms are largely at peace (the extent to which Rhudaur is not at peace wouldn't yet be clear to outsiders, I think). In the long run, everyone is dead, and the one I see as most likely to support a cadet - Orogost - really doesn't care about the long term at all, as he will be dead sooner than most. He cares about preserving his power and privileges in the short term, which only Aramacil or Amantir provides any decent chance of.

Now, in terms of Orogost, it's worth saying he's also a legal stickler. This doesn't mean that he won't unconsciously interpret the law in the way which is most convenient for his own interests, but he will need to have a good legal argument for whoever he supports, not merely his own convenience.

At any rate, the point is not to say that this will happen - obviously, it did not happen. In the end, Cardolan reunifies with Arthedain and the Prince gets the title of "Prince of Cardolan" as a consolation prize - a title which might contain some kind of extension of his lands and powers, although that hasn't been established. But that doesn't mean that other options weren't explored.

At any rate, my sense of how this might play out is that Orogost, in going over the appropriate legal precedents (I assume that Númenorean law is along the lines of the Common Law, with various often contradictory precedents and so forth going back to the time when the Edain first entered Beleriand and learned writing from the Noldor), and "discover" that, in fact, Tarnendur of Rhudaur has the best claim to the throne of Cardolan (i.e., that, on extinction of the middle branch, inheritance goes to the younger branch before going back to the older). Tarnendur as actual king would obviously be unacceptable to everybody else (and probably not very welcome to Orogost himself), so the idea of a renunciation by Tarnendur and his elder son, in favor of the younger, could arise. Things might proceed to the point of discussions with Gimilbeth. Belecthor and Adrahil, concerned, would then bring Aramacil in as a more attractive (to them) version of the same thing, presumably bringing in other legal precedents. Galphant would initially hold aloof from this, since he likely thinks himself a more qualified king, with a considerably better claim, than either of the cadets, but might engage a bit. The whole thing might easily collapse in a short time.

My general thoughts about how popular reunification is in Cardolan is that it's not particularly positively popular. The common view would, I think, be somewhat muggled - many would agree that the original division was unfortunate, and that, in particular, the warfare among the three kingdoms was destructive and horrible, but also find the idea of unification under the king of Arthedain distasteful and have some desire for independence. The biggest ally of reunification would be the idea of inevitability, and a general lack of opposition to it, rather than positive desire for unity. Looking at what's been shown already about Rhudaur, which is doing much, much worse with independence than Cardolan has, we see that in Rhudaur, while there are many who are friendly to Arthedain and desire its alliance, there seem to be few who actually want reunification. The situation is made different in Cardolan by the lack of obvious heirs, but I don't think it's all that different. Even Adrahil and Belecthor may not, ultimately, really want reunification. They just want to stay in the good graces of the King of Arthedain by acting in his interests. If circumstances make reunification impossible, that might be a relief.

Now, in terms of Aramacil, the biggest roadblock there is probably going to be Malvegil himself. It strikes me that Malvegil really wanted to reunify all three kingdoms in his life time, and that, in the absence of that possibility, reunification with Cardolan is a nice consolation prize. With Dirion's death and the lack of heirs of Caryontar, this seems in reach, and he's going to be very reluctant to allow his grandson to take the throne which is rightfully his. But that doesn't prevent others from exploring the idea.

In terms of Amantir, the main roadblock is probably going to be the fact that people in Cardolan dislike Rhudaur even more than they dislike Arthedain.

So, anyway, I agree that these ideas probably don't go very far, but I think that exploring them is quite plausible, even so. Certainly it would be attractive to various figures in Cardolan, and certainly Gimilbeth would, I think, be interested in her brother getting a throne somewhere. As I said, it's just another possibility to throw out.

[Valandil]

Duilin - you continue to make good points. Although I'm very dubious about a younger son inheriting from a middle son with preference over an older. What happens when the second of four sons dies? The third of four? The fifth of eight? Besides, with primogeniture (and alike concepts) having fairly wide usage, why something so contrary to it?

At the very least it might be a hairbrained (heirbrained? ;D ) enough scheme to eventually fall apart.

PS: I am going to have to get a scorecard for all the Cardolan characters though. I'm getting lost. Have you posted about them all in one place already? If so, where is it?

[Duilin]

In the Middle Ages, succession laws were very vague, and I'm fairly sure there's examples of this. If the second of four dies, the crown goes to the third, and then the fourth, before going back to the first, etc. An example is England after William the Conqueror's death in 1087. Normandy was inherited by his oldest son, Robert, and his second son, William, inherited England. William predeceased his older brother, but the throne of England passed to his younger brother, Henry (although Robert certainly tried to claim it). Another, more recent example, is in the Duchy of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha. Prince Albert, Queen Victoria's husband, was the younger son of Duke Ernest I of Saxe-Coburg. His older brother, Ernest II, died without issue in 1893. The heir by primogeniture was the Prince of Wales (the future King Edward VII of the UK), since Albert was long dead by then. The Prince renounced his rights to the Duchy in favor of his younger brother Alfred, Duke of Edinburgh, but retained some residual rights. When Alfred died, also without any sons, in 1900, the claim didn't go back to the Prince of Wales, but went instead to the next brother, the Duke of Connaught, who renounced for himself and his son, and then to the only son of Victoria's youngest son, the Duke of Albany, who succeeded as Duke Charles Edward. The monarchies in Germany ended well before anything of the sort could happen, but if his line had become extinct, the throne would have passed to even more junior members of the House of Saxe-Coburg, before finally passing back to Edward VII's line once they were all extinct. One could imagine the same argument being made here - i.e., that Amlaith had renounced his rights to succession in Cardolan in favor of Caryontar, and that, as such, his line could not be gotten back to until all other descendants of Isildur were exhausted. It's not an airtight case, at all, but it's one that could plausibly be made.

At any rate, the basic issue is that, for the most part, these issues don't have to be dealt with, so there usually aren't clear cut rules for how to deal with them. And individual precedents may have more to do with the specific issues of that particular case, rather than general principles. What happens is going to have more to do with the political strengths of the different sides, rather than anything else.


As far as the Cardolan characters, there are a couple of posts which describe them all, but not in one place. SO here goes:

Orogost - the elderly Steward of the Kingdom, he is acting as regent since the death of King Dirion. He was Dirion's closest advisor, and has been accustomed to more or less running the kingdom for many years now.

Amdír - Orogost's son, essentially acting as a secretary and assistant to his father. Possibly ambitious and somewhat restive under his father's close watch.

Galphant - the son and heir-apparent of the ailing Prince Rammastir of Baranduin, Galphant hopes to claim the throne of Cardolan through his mother, King Dirion's only sister.

Herunarth - only son of Galphant. A young man, eager to distinguish himself.

Hador - another member of the Council of Cardolan. The closest ally of Rammastir and Galphant on the Council, he is crafty and devious.

Belecthor - the Count of Tharbad, and, as Admiral of Cardolan, a member of the Council. Belecthor is a hail-fellow-well-met type - loves food, drink, and women, essentially good natured. Constantly in debt, he has essentially sold his services to the King of Arthedain in exchange for money, although he probably doesn't see it that way. Congenial to everyone, including his political opponents.

Adrahil - another member of the Council, Adrahil has spent time as King Dirion's emissary in Fornost, and is, along with Belecthor, the other member of the pro-Arthedain faction on the Council. He is somewhat quiet and reserved. Little has really been said about him as yet.

I think that's the extent of it. Should I repost this somewhere else, for general reference?

[Gordis]

Great info, Duilin! It is wonderful that you know such things so well.

I especially liked this argument:
One could imagine the same argument being made here - i.e., that Amlaith had renounced his rights to succession in Cardolan in favor of Caryontar, and that, as such, his line could not be gotten back to until all other descendants of Isildur
were exhausted. It's not an airtight case, at all, but it's one that could plausibly be made.
I think Gimilbeth will stick to that. ;D

By the way, I think Gimilbeth might be the first to advance a claim from Rhudaur - to the shock of both the Cardolani and the Arthedani - and from her father, Tarnendur, not from Amantir (the latter idea would have to come from Cardolan side). Do you have something against it, Duilin?

And I think it is best to repost the info on the Cardolan delegation into the "Characters information thread" (and please, add the approximate ages of characters).