Storms at Weathertop. Shadow IV- Discussion Thread

[Gordis]

Val: Gordis & Duilin both: one thing about a possible Galphant-Gimilbeth matchup - will it really get Gimilbeth what she wants? Also - would it basically nullify any potential gains of a Beleg-Tarniel match? Just something to think about...

Actually the main thing Gimilbeth really wants is to become a queen. . Why not of Cardolan? She doesn't care much for Rhudaur - she dislikes the land and prefers more civilized Gondor. Cardolan would be the second best.

Beleg-Tarniel match will be advantageous for Rhudaur if only Malvegil agrees to almost immediate military involvement - not some 20 years later, but now. But I doubt he will - not before there is any male heir left to Tarnendur. Malvegil will accept Tarniel for Beleg, I think, as hers is the only remaining Isildurian line, but his own. But Malvegil will only give vague promises for the future: to help if a civil war breaks out and maybe also to take Tarniel in custody - to live safely in Fornost.

But, anyway, what is in it for Gimilbeth herself? She cares for her father, but not for her brothers. And she will never become Queen this way - even Tarniel, if married to Beleg, will take precedence over her.

Now Galphant would be OK for her only if he had real opportunity to take the crown. He has to persuade her that he has chances and resources and backing. Then she would help him, if promised marriage. Maybe she will ask for a secret betrothal - just to make sure she won’t be cheated?

I think, Duilin and Val, all this plot should occur to Hador right after Gimilbeth voices Tarnendur's claim to the throne of Cardolan.
Let us suppose the Gondorean side gives a straightaway answer "As far as we know, there are no Caryontar's heirs left, but we shall make further investigations, and send you an official paper signed by the King." Then the delegation will probably discuss what to do, and Celebrindol will voice Arthedain's claim, and Gimilbeth - Rhudaur's. Then it will be obvious for Hador that the pretender to Cardolan throne should better side with Rhudaur against the inflexible Malvegil’s position: give the crown to me or else…

I have a feeling that Malvegil would be adamant about his own right to Dirion's throne - so the matter would be settled amiably only after his death, in early 1348 - between Celebrindol and Galphant.

And, as Galphant after 1348 will be King in everything but the name, Gimilbeth might return to remind him of his promises... ;D That will allow her to be in Cardolan before 1356 and spy for Angmar. But that is for the far future real time...

[Duilin]

Hmm...lots to think about here. BTW, though, doesn't Malvegil die in 1349?

Let me consider, though, what the best time for Hador to propose the idea. But I think that things need to start to bubble before any formal answer comes from Gondor. Because once the final answer comes from Gondor, there's no further reason for the Cardolani delegation to stick around for very long, and not much time for intrigue.

Obviously, Malvegil has been ready to make claims to Cardolan for some time. Celebrindol is going to want to consult with Adrahil about the situation, and perhaps start making noises about Malvegil's claims, should the line of Caryontar indeed be extinct. In particular, he might start trying to cultivate Orogost. In terms of Gimilbeth's ideas, I think that perhaps Amdir and Aegnor, in their discussion with Barund, might have let some information on the situation slip. Depending on if anyone else wants to play Amdir, I think he might be a good choice for a "Rhudaurian party" in Cardolan - he's kind of sneaky and restive under his father, but backing a Rhudaurian claim wouldn't be actively disloyal to his father, and he might be the one to come up with the idea of Amantir as King of Cardolan as a way for his family, perhaps, to preserve their influence in a new reign in a way that Galphant or Malvegil as king would not.

So, there's going to be definitely active scheming on the part of the Arthedain party and, perhaps, from Amdir to try to secure a Rhudaurian claim - although he certainly would want Amantir, rather than Tarnendur, as the candidate. I think that Galphant and Hador would want to be scheming as well, and, among other things, public courting of Gimilbeth by Galphant would distract attention away from the more secretive scheming for a talk with Romendacil.

So perhaps at this point, with mostly preliminary scheming only, we get to the point where a lengthy discussion with Gondor is feasible, and the loremaster reports back preliminarily. Galendur died indeed without heirs. Tarhael had several sons. The eldest had an estate in Ithilien. He had a son, but the son did not marry, and died a few years back. Tarhael's third son was killed in battle with the Easterlings and had not married. But the fate of Tarhael's second son is unclear - he settled out somewhere distant from Osgiliath, and was not heard from again in Osgiliath. Nobody has any reason to think he married and had children - any descendants would surely have claimed the estate of their cousin in Ithilien - but a bit more due diligence is required before it can be ruled out entirely. Messages will be sent to the region where Tarhael's second son is thought to have settled (not sure where this should be - Anfalas, maybe? South Gondor?), and we'll let you know in a couple of weeks. But very little chance of anything.

So that gives us a few weeks where it's fairly certain that there is no heir of Caryontar, but they still have reason to wait around. Now is when public (but still informal) claims will start to be made, and things get more serious. Perhaps at this point, after Gimilbeth starts to make claims on behalf of Rhudaur, what has been mostly an attempt at misdirection (Galphant courting Gimilbeth) will become completely serious as a way of derailing Amdir's candidacy for Amantir. I think at this point also, Orogost will start to privately warm to the idea of a cadet candidacy - either Amantir or Beleg's brother, whose name I still can't recall. But he'll probably have to get out his legal precedents and such first, and won't want to take any public stand until descendants of Tarhael are definitively excluded.

Then, once word finally gets back that Tarhael's second son also died childless and unmarried, things get into high gear with formal claims and the like. Perhaps a blizzard can keep the Cardolanis stuck at Amon Sûl for a while to allow for more intrigue.

Anyway, just one possible way to play it out.

[Gordis]

Yes, you are right, Duilin- Malvegil died in 1349.

Somehow I thought Malvegil had only a year to live at the time of our story... So, what, Val - Beleg's rescue expedition won't take place until December 1348??? Why then didn't we move the date 2 years forward?

Anyway, Duilin, I think all your ideas are quite OK. Let them have a preliminary reply from Gondor, as you suggest, and start arguing. It is better, though, to have this reply come after Malvegil talks to Gimilbeth and agrees to Tarniel-Beleg's match.

"Rhudaurian party" in Cardolan, by the way, is bound to be quite shocked when Gimilbeth herself suddenly starts to support Galphant and not her brother Amantir.

[Valandil]

Don't worry Gordis - I'm all over that one, always have been.

Remember - Beleg goes off just about Yule (maybe just before) at the end of 1348. By the time he gets back with a Princess - it's already 1349. And - on reaching Amon Sul he discovers that while he left as the grandson of King Malvegil - he returns as the eldest son and Heir of his father, King Argeleb (formerly known as Celebrindol).

So... Malvegil DOES die in 1349 - it's just very early 1349. Otherwise, if we did it two years from current game time, in Yule of 1349-1350 - Malvegil would just have to die in very late 1349 - if we want that same little drama for Beleg that he moves up a step in his absence (which made some sense to me - as the Full Heir - he would have a harder time leaving on his little expedition. I think he'll do it covertly as it is... but he might be very hesitant to make the trip if he was already next in line for the throne) (princesses or no princesses! )

As to the Galphant-Gimilbeth thing... just remember that both kingdoms are VERY weak. Neither will be able to help the other. Only Arthedain is strong at this time - stronger than the other two together, I should think (esp since both of the other two are going to get rolled over in the next few decades, while Arthedain will last another 600+ years).

Of course, if Gimilbeth just wants to be somebody's queen, she may not care - as you say. But I think she WOULD take care not to walk into something where she would be a Queen whose King might very likely be deposed. She might come to a bad end herself that way.

But... the poor girl is destined for a bad end anyway, isn't she?

[Duilin]

In terms of Cardolan, I don't think it's necessarily so weak. Among other things, Cardolan gets ravaged in 1409, but manages to at least somewhat recover, and Dúnedain remain there to some extent until the plague. Even so, my general sense of Cardolan at this time is that it's prosperous and well-populated, but not very warlike. Orogost has been managing the finances well, so there's a full treasury, but not much in the way of a standing army. Cardolan is weak, but weak by choice, and certainly doesn't have the kind of inherent weaknesses that Rhudaur does - its non-Dúnedain population is not a constant internal security problem, for one thing, and it's not in range of orc attacks, either. I agree that Rhudaur won't be able to help Cardolan in any significant way (although no one in Cardolan need know that.) Whether Cardolan might be able to help Rhudaur seems more open to question. Cardolan, as noted, has money, which might be of some use to Rhudaur. And again, the important thing is that Rhudaur thinks that Cardolan might be of some help.

Finally, it's worth recalling that Galphant doesn't want an actual war with Malvegil. He wants to get Malvegil to back down without a war. It's unclear whether he'd prefer a war for the throne over just accepting Malvegil - and indeed, we know that in the end he accepts a face-saving compromise.

[Gordis]

Val - I meant I was under the impression that Beleg would go on his rescue expedition this very year - by the end of 1347!

So we will be bound to make a one-year jump - or make him set off and return while Malvegil is still alive.

Of course, if Gimilbeth just wants to be somebody's queen, she may not care - as you say. But I think she WOULD take care not to walk into something where she would be a Queen whose King might very likely be deposed. She might come to a bad end herself that way

That is why she won't agree to anything but betrothal before Galphant actually takes the crown.

And Duilin. the full treasury is very attractive! ;D

Finally, it's worth recalling that Galphant doesn't want an actual war with Malvegil. He wants to get Malvegil to back down without a war. It's unclear whether he'd prefer a war for the throne over just accepting Malvegil - and indeed, we know that in the end he accepts a face-saving compromise.

Actually, Galphant and Co would be wise to wait until Malvegil dies before consenting to anything. Celebrindol seems more open to compromises than his father.

EDIT: And in 1347 Rhudaur still has Isildur's heirs. Next year there will be none, but Gimilbeth.
So -next year Celebrindol will have a real opportunity to claim all Arnor - and he will offer Galphant, the sister-son of King Dirion, the last of Caryontar's line, and bethrothed to Gimilbeth - the last of Dauremir's line - to rule Cardolan (and maybe nominally also Rhudaur) as Prince and Princess. Not bad for both parties.

[Valandil]

gordis said:

Val - I meant I was under the impression that Beleg would go on his rescue expedition this very year - by the end of 1347!

So we will be bound to make a one-year jump - or make him set off and return while Malvegil is still alive.
:
:

But Tarniel isn't even married to Broggha yet - much less pregnant. Beleg's "Rescue of Princesses" will likely be the final part of this game. And yes - it should still be a year away, because first Tarnendur's sons, and then he himself have to die, Tarniel marrying Broggha somewhere in the midst of all that - and getting pregnant by him.

Rescue expedition comes after all that.

[Gordis]

I know but it looks like Daurendil will die soon - in spring, while his Caelen affair is still fresh, Amantir and the King will die in autumn and Broggha will marry Tarniel on Midsummer's day 1347(your own idea, Val) so by the end of the year she may be 6 months pregnant.

[Valandil]

We're November-December of 1347 now - so the oncoming Mid-year's day will be that of 1348.

[Gordis]

Oh... these innumerable New Year parties must have done something to my head. ;D All is well then...

Serenoli, great post - I've missed Hurgon so much!

I hope Duilin will find some more wine for our Hurgon and then he could tell the tale of "late Nauremir's" death and ressurection and how the witch had enspelled him ;D It will make a jolly good tale - especially in your rendering, Serenoli! ;D