Economy in Arnor

[Witch-king of Angmar]

z3.invisionfree.com/The_Northern_Kingdom/index.php?showtopic=40

Alcuin

Tolkien did not spend a great of time analyzing the economies of Númenor, Gondor, and Arnor: in Letter 153, he remarks of his subcreation that “Its economics, science, artefacts, religion, and philosophy are defective, or at least sketchy.” The same month (September 1954) he wrote in Letter 154
QUOTE
I am more conscious of my sketchiness in the archaeology and realien than in the economics: clothes, agricultural implements, metal-working, pottery, architecture and the like. Not to mention music and its apparatus. I am not incapable of or unaware of economic thought; and I think as far as the ‘mortals’ go. Men, Hobbits, and Dwarfs, that the situations are so devised that economic likelihood is there and could be worked out: Gondor has sufficient ‘townlands’ and fiefs with a good water and road approach to provide for its population; and clearly has many industries though these are hardly alluded to. The Shire is placed in a water and mountain situation and a distance from the sea and a latitude that would give it a natural fertility, quite apart from the stated fact that it was a well-tended region when they took it over (no doubt with a good deal of older ans and crafts). The Shire-hobbits have no very great need of metals, but the Dwarfs are agents; and in the east of the Mountains of Lune are some of their mines (as shown in the earlier legends) : no doubt, the reason, or one of them, for their often crossing the Shire.

Pardon the long quotation. In the footnotes, realien is defined as “German, ‘realities, technical facts’.”

I have a sense that part of the early prosperity of Númenor was in part due to their regular connection with Tol Eressëa. The subsequent prosperity of the Faithful in the western regions of Númenor might have been in part due, perhaps, as facilitators of trade between Tol Eressëa and Lindon.

That being said, Arnor’s only direct access to the sea was at Tharbad and perhaps at Lond Daer, which seems to have survived into the Third Age. We should consider how much trade and traffic existed between Arnor and the two Elf-kingdoms (if I may call Rivendell a “kingdom,” as I think it was for all practical purposes). The downs – the Barrow-downs, the South Downs, and the North Downs, were probably given over to sheep and cattle herding.

Minhiriath was always the most populous region of Arnor until the Great Plague of the 17th century. It should have been reasonably well-populated, with farms, orchards, and towns throughout the region. You might not have considered this, but it is likely that Cardolan was the most heavily-populated and initially the most prosperous of the three Dúnadan kingdoms that emerged from Arnor: there was trade by sea, trade by land, the weather was warmer and so more conducive to prosperous agriculture, and the population was larger. I don’t know how this might have played into the dissolution of the old kingdom of Arnor, but you need to keep it in mind. If your role-play is in the mid-14th century of the Third Age, you should bear in mind that Bree was also part of Cardolan. It is likely that there was a town at Andrath, where the Witch-king set up camp during “The Hunt for the Ring” (Unfinished Tales) in the “narrow defile” between the Barrow-downs and the South Downs.

I suspect the Barrow-blades Bombadil gave Frodo and his companions were manufactured exclusively in Cardolan, and that their means of production and even their existence were unknown in Arthedain and Rivendell. (But not, apparently, to Bombadil, who seems to have known a great deal about Cardolan.) This would indicate that there was some center of learning and commerce in Cardolan, probably in northwestern Minhiriath near the downs: a city, at least by the standards of that time and region, smaller than Fornost and Bree, but still larger than most of the towns.

Arthedain by the 14th century should have been more militarized than Cardolan because of its proximity to Angmar and long border with Rhudaur, which by this time was under Carn Dûm’s suzerainty. If so, then it is likely that the war of 1409 was directed against Cardolan (through the old territory of Rhudaur) as against a “soft target,” an attempt to envelope and destroy the northern Dúnedain. There was a moat along the Great East Road dividing Arthedain and Cardolan: Bombadil remembered it with sadness. It is likely that the two kingdoms had been fighting over borders and territory, possibly because Arthedain was now land-locked.

Finally, you should consider that the region that later became The Shire was still the royal demesne of the Kings of Arthedain, probably still well-populated and highly productive.

[Witch-king of Angmar]

Valandil

Alcuin: a few questions, and a few points on which I see things a little differently...

For one - are you sure that Minhiriath was always the most populous region of Arnor until the Great Plague? I've never seen anything to indicate that. It might have been. But I had always thought of it as a more "peripheral area" - and wondered if much of whatever population it had would be non-Dunedain.

I agree that Cardolan could have initially been the most populous and most powerful of the Three Kingdoms - after the Division. However, I think that would have rapidly changed over the next few centuries. I think all the kingdoms fought with one another somewhat - but I think the principal fighting was between Cardolan and Rhudaur - so that those two would have been most quickly weakened. (EDIT: also note that Arthedain had maybe twice the land as Cardolan - so if less populous initially, it might have had more room to grow)

I'm not convinced that the blades of the Barrow Downs were exclusively of Cardolan make. By 1409, Cardolan had been subject to Arthedain for 60 years. Perhaps there was some collaboration on them.

I agree that there were plenty of other towns we don't know about. I think Bree was quite small though - so they could have been larger than Bree, and still much smaller than Fornost. These other towns could have easily disappeared by the time of our familiar stories from the late Third Age. I have already proposed a "Harnost" - to mirror Fornost - on the North-South Road, where the one part forks off toward Sarn Ford (so that Bree is straight north through the Andrath, Sarn Ford is to the northwest and Tharbad to the southeast). Also agree that there could have been several other towns up along the North-South Road from there.

I disagree that the Shire area was still heavily populated. I think Annuminas was already deserted (or else why is Arthedain not ruled from there?) - and that Second Millenium Fornost has a much smaller population than First Millenium Annuminas did - as well as being much farther from the Shire area. So... Fornost is far enough away that it's more difficult to supply it from such a distance - and it's needs are small enough, that it can be supplied from a smaller area of farmland much closer at hand. It was only about 250 years later that the Shire was granted to the halflings - certainly enough time for much population loss, but it could still have happened much sooner.

(just to toss out made-up numbers, I envision Annuminas having a population of 50,000 - 70,000... maybe 100,000 at it's max. Fornost at only 5,000 - 10,000 pre-Division - up to 15,000 - 20,000 with fugitives in the 860's - and maybe a max of 25,000 to 30,000 after 1409 - when I think the remnants of the Dunedain gathered closer and closer in to the one last remaining significant stronghold. OTOH - I imagine Osgiliath reaching 1,000,000 at Gondor's zenith - early Second Millenium - since ancient Rome may have reached that mark)

And, one last thing - I wanted to ask for clarification of what you meant that Arthedain was the most militarized of the Three Kingdoms in the mid 14th century. I think it perhaps still had the strongest military remaining - even of the FOUR Northern Kingdoms (counting the new one - Angmar) - but that it had seen much less of war than its two sisters - who I think had been fighting one another almost continually for nearly 400 or 500 years.

Don't get me wrong - I certainly enjoy reading all your good analysis - I just beg to differ on some points. And... I look forward to reading your responses to this, once you're able to get to them.

[Witch-king of Angmar]

Alcuin

Let me find the reference on the population on Minhiriath. I read it recently, but I need to find it again. Then I will try to address the rest of your questions.

[Duilin]

But I had always thought of it as a more "peripheral area" - and wondered if much of whatever population it had would be non-Dunedain.

I think the clear implication is that probably the majority of the population in all three kingdoms (and in Gondor!) was non-Dúnedain. Elendil and his sons only came back with nine ships, to lands that were already well-inhabited. Presumably there were a good number of Dúnedain already at Pelargir, and for Arnor to even be a possibility, there would have to be some in Eriador, as well, but certainly non-Dúnedain would have to make up a large percentage of the population of all the kingdoms.

In Arthedain it might make least difference. The native peoples of that area, apparently, were closely related to the Dúnedain - members of the same race as the Folk of Bëor, iirc. Presumably Arthedain had the largest number of Dúnedain of the three kingdoms, as well. My understanding was that Tolkien had explicitly said that Minhiriath was largely non-Dúnedain. I believe the main Dúnedain locales in Cardolan were in the north - the Barrow Downs and the South Downs - and at Tharbad. My understanding was that the main population of Cardolan (and particularly Minhiriath) would have been of the same type as the men of Bree, who were themselves, iirc, related to the Dunlendings and to the folk of the White Mountain vales who were the main non-Dúnedain element in the population of Gondor.

One thing I've liked about the roleplay is the way that it really shows how kind of gross and caste-based and racist the Dúnedain kingdoms must have been in their heydays, if we're to try to rationalize any of it into a realistic history (which I don't think Tolkien himself ever really did, as he himself admitted). The fact that the Dúnedain largely (although of course never entirely) married among themselves, and that they had much longer lifestyles than the men around them, must have created tensions, even in Arthedain, where the surrounding people would have been close kin to the Dúnedain, or in Cardolan, where the non-Dúnedain population seems at least to have developed a certain level of civilization. In Rhudaur, where the non-Dúnedain population seems to have never really been assimilated at all, it must have been that much worse.

But perhaps I'm underestimating the Dúnedain population. In Arthedain, at least, we have only extrapolation to suggest that the population was not wholly Dúnedain - we know of Hillmen of Rhudaur (who are presumably related to the Easterlings of the First Age?) and the men of Bree (which was, iirc, in Cardolan) and their relations in Minhiriath, but as far as I'm aware the last we hear of the Edain of Eriador is during Sauron's invasion of Eriador midway through the second age. The area of Arthedain might have been wholly resettled by Dúnedain, for all I know.

[Valandil]

Duilin

I wanted to get back to this one too.

The basis of much of my background on Arnor is from some articles written a few years ago by a Michael Martinez, and posted on a site called Suite 101. I think I can find them and put up links, if you like. He wrote a LOT of articles about Middle Earth - and the two that were so formative for my histories involved: (1) The Founding of Arnor and Gondor, and (2) The Division of Arnor.

In that first one, he presents a case that from the middle of the Second Age onward, there was a steady flow of Numenorean colonists to Middle-Earth - and that most of those who went to the north were among the Faithful. Prior to the establishment of Pelargir (I think 2350 of the Second Age), he thinks they went into Eriador - but from 2350 onward, to Pelargir.

That meant there were two different types of Numenorean colonists in the lands of Arnor and of Gondor. When Elendil arrived and Arnor was founded, the previous Numenorean colonists were descendants of those who had come at least 1000 years before! When Isildur and Anarion came to Pelargir, there had been a constant flow of colonists for the past 1000 years. Two very different situations.

His article about the Division of Arnor is a whole 'nuther thing - from which I borrow heavily.

Even the concept of Princes that I present is borrowed from him. He suggests that, since Elendil came to the north with four ships, and captained one himself, that the other three ship captains became "princes". Tolkien mentions that in Eriador, Elendil's group settled along the Lhun, Baranduin and Mitheithel Rivers - logical with them being seafarers, that they would think in terms of waterways. So - one prince is placed initially at each river. I've outlined an idea of how the prince of Lhun eventually shifted to Fornost, but I don't remember how much of that I worked into my history yet.

Let me know if you'd like to see those articles.

[Duilin]

Yes, Valandil, I've read Martinez's stuff. He's a good writer, and often has good points, although at other times his "inferences" are pretty indistinguishable from "speculation" (or, for that matter, "fan fiction").

I agree t hat there must have been Dúnedain colonists to Middle-earth for some time before Elendil's ships arrived, and that those in Eriador and Pelargir would be largely Faithful. What I think is difficult to reconcile about this view is that the Eriador/Pelargir Númenoreans behave more or less in the opposite manner than one would expect given their backgrounds. The ones in the north would a) be among people who were kin (at least partially - we know there were Edain of the first and third brethren in northern Eriador, even if the members of the second brethren in southern Eriador weren't recognized as such by the Númenoreans); and b) been there much longer without much new immigration. But yet it is in the south, where there is no kinship to local peoples is recognized, and where there was, until much later, a stream of immigrants from Númenor itself, that there is interbreeding with non-Númenoreans, while in the north the Dúnedain of Arnor don't mix much with the surrounding peoples.

I'm not sure how to reconcile this in a logical way. Perhaps, for one thing, the common Dúnedain of Arthedain were already pretty mixed with the surrounding related peoples by the time Elendil came, so that there was no real distinction any longer between Dúnedain and Edain in those parts. In his discussion of the mixing of blood of the people of Gondor after the Kin Strife, Tolkien goes some way to suggest that interbreeding with non-Númenoreans does not, in fact, actually have any relationship to the shortening of the lives of the Dúnedain. So the Dúnedain who were living, largely without much contact with Númenor proper, in Eriador might have already fully interbred with the Edain population of Eriador during the second half of the Second Age, to the point where by the time Elendil came, there was an already mixed people, still with extended lives (although probably not as long as the pure Númenoreans coming straight from Númenor), who all considered themselves Dúnedain, because they all had significant quantities of Dúnedain blood (iirc the Edain of Eriador lost a lot of their population during Sauron's invasion of Eriador, so an about equal mixing seems possible in the centuries that follow).

One might imagine that while most of the population of Arthedain (at least) considers itself to be Dúnedain, it is only the aristocracy that is purely of Númenorean blood, and that these tend to marry among each other, while the common people tend to marry among themselves.

Obviously the situation is different in Rhudaur and Cardolan, where, seemingly, the native population is not assimilated at all, and never is throughout the life of the kingdom. Bree (which Tolkien, I believe, said was in Cardolan, even though it's on the wrong side of the road, but is, at any rate, at least near Cardolan) is inhabited by men unrelated to the Dúnedain, and there seems to be more or less no mixing between them. The same seems likely to be true of the hill men of Rhudaur (although we know far less about them from canonical sources). So we have, on the one hand, an entirely mixed population in Arthedain (although still with fairly strict social divisions), while on the other hand, you have what are more or less ethnic castes in Cardolan and Rhudaur. The relative strengths of the kingdoms - with Arthedain seemingly strongest, then Cardolan, and finally Rhudaur - then originates from these distinctions. Arthedain's population is largely homogeneous. Cardolan's non Dúnedain population (Gwathuirim) are politically (but not culturally) reconciled to rule by the Dúnedain. And Rhudaur's (Hill-men, probably descendants of relatives of the first age Easterlings) are never reconciled at all.

Does this make sense?

[Valandil]

But it may not be so illogical. Think about it this way:

1. In Arnor, the war of Sauron and the Elves, from 1695 to 1701, wiped out most of the populace of native folk in Eriador. Sure - some pockets survived - a good chunk of whom were descendants of pre-Edanic peoples. If Numenorean colonists then began to arrive there, from that time up to ~2350, they may well have become the most populous group. When Elendil arrived, he may have come to a people who were largely Numenorean in culture - and very traditional Numenorean, if they had held onto the culture from the ages when their ancestors came. Also - it doesn't seem like there were any real enemies. So - both the early Numenorean colonists and the Exiles who came with Elendil learned to live at peace among (at least most of) any other indigenous peoples who were present. So - the population of Arnor could conceivably have been largely Dunedain.

2. In Gondor, faithful Numenoreans had steadily come to Pelargir from 2350 to 3318. They were probably spreading a little bit inland, and maybe a bit more widely along the coasts. The wreck of Numenor may have wiped out some of the latter. Anyway - it might have been a very full city, and probably entirely Numenorean. When Isildur and Anarion arrived, they could have responded gladly to the idea of massive expansion upriver (esp after the Tsunami!). Also - Gondor, in contrast to Arnor, was very expansionist. As they spread, subduing other peoples, it's easy to imagine that they began to form alliances, and take soldiers from, some of the native groups they encountered (as did the Romans) - at least those more friendly/acceptable to them. So ironically, even if they had less inclination to mix with the peoples around them, their expansionism may have given them much more reason to do so. Still though, because of the long colonization of Pelargir, at least the core areas of Gondor might have been predominantly Dunedain - but eventually other peoples became more accepted.

3. As for not inter-marrying, there are some practical reasons that go beyond an appearance of racism on the surface. If marriage is to be for one's whole life, would someone with a life expectancy of 200 be more inclined to marry another with the same, or one with a life expectancy of 70? Probably some did otherwise, but they would serve as ready examples of the unhappy future that would bring (Dunedain parent: You do not want to marry one of them... do you want to become like old Mardon?"). If you're a Dunedain of 40 and marry a non-Dunedain of 20, in 50-60 years they've died of old age, or are at least very old - and you're still in the prime of life, with over 100 years to go!

4. Given a thousand years or so, a Numenorean population could expand significantly. Although back on the island, they would have fairly small families (yet still increased - so they must have averaged 3-5), it's possible that in the wide expanses of a new frontier, they would have more children. But still, take an average of just 4 children (who survive, and in turn have children of their own), and an average of 100 years per generation (probably less in actuality, but this is conservative for my model) - then the population effectively doubles every 100 years. Run the numbers and see what that gives you (for one of those places that was relatively peaceful and went without a major catastrophie).

5. You mentioned Bree: because it WAS on the 'wrong side of the road', I have a bit of an oddball theory that I've never really forwarded. I'll present it now, for everyone's amusement.

Remember how the East-West Road bent south from where Bombadil saw the Hobbits onto it? What if it USED to go more or less straight there, and passed north of Bree and the Chetwood? Maybe there was even another town (Dunedain?) or at least an outpost there, in the days of undivided Arnor.

Suppose this was still the case in 861 when Arnor was divided (which would clearly place Bree in Cardolan). If anything else was at the true crossroads at this time, it was either abandoned or became less hospitable to travelers on the road. So... some enterprising Bree-folk get together and make a little "Bree cut-off" eastward from their town, to hook up with the East-West road further down the way - maybe as far as what later became "The Forsaken Inn" (still in its unforsaken days), maybe not quite so far. The appeal was - 'detour through Bree, refresh yourself, then just a little jog north back to your main route.' Cardolan, seeing the opportunity to draw traffic away from Arthedain, may have seized on the idea and done the connection going west from Bree - right across their own doorstep at the northern edge of Tyrn Gorthad (the better to watch the road!).

What do you think? ;D

[Duilin]

Hmm...lots of interesting thoughts here. The thing is, the non-Dúnedain population is always going to increase much more quickly than the Dúnedain, because generations are shorter - and because the Dúnedain don't seem to take advantage of their much longer fertility to have more children than "lesser men." And do you think an average of four children makes sense for the Dúnedain? In Gondor, at least, the pure-blooded Dúnedain seem to be breeding at less than replacement levels. And the implication of the discussion of Arnor is that it never recovered from its losses in the War of the Last Alliance - which again suggests pretty small families.

At any rate, as far as I can tell, it seems fair to describe the population of Arthedainn as being generally considered to be majority, or even almost entirely, Dúnadanic - even if therehas been intermixing with the Edain population of Eriador. Cardolan has a mixture of Dúnedain and Gwathuirim, and Rhudaur a mixture of Dúnedain and Hillmen. In neither case does there seem to have been an enormous amount of mixing - Bree, for instance, seems to have more or less no Dúnadanic blood among its population. Gondor has originally a similar population composition to Cardolan - a mixture of Dúnedain and Gwathuirim. I would suggest that the Dúnadan element in Gondor is probably numerically somewhat larger than that in Cardolan, but that there is also far more mixing, and by the time we're at now, there would also have been a considerable influx of Northmen (i.e., Edain of the third kindred), as well, and, in the south, Haradrim.

What the exact ratios are is more or less impossible to say, I think. Some areas, like Arthedain, Belfalas, and Ithilien, seem to be pretty strongly Dúnadanic. Presumably all the major cities (except perhaps Fornost and Minas Ithil) will be very mixed.

BTW, what would we think would be the largest cities in the Exiled kingdoms at this time? I'd suggest the following as the top seven (in my vague sense of the order of size):

1. Osgiliath
2. Minas Anor
3. Pelargir
4. Umbar
5. Minas Ithil
6. Fornost
7. Tharbad

After that, I'm not really sure. I'd suggest Bree as quite possibly being, at this time, considerably larger than it would later become. Rhudaur seems to be very sparsely populated, and Arthedain doesn't seem to have any major cities besides Fornost - certainly there were none in the area of the Shire, or else we'd here of ruins. And Annuminas, the only other city in Arthedain that we hear of, is in ruins. I'm not sure if there were any significant cities in Calenardhon - Angrenost (Isengard) would seem the most plausible, but it doesn't seem to have been much more than a town surrounding the tower of Orthanc. Aglarond (Helm's Deep) would seem likely to be smaller than Angrenost. On the other side of the White Mountains, Dol Amroth seems the most likely settlement of any size, but I'm not sure how big it was meant to be. We k now of no major cities i n Harondor. So these would seem likely to be the major settlements, no?

[Valandil]

Duilin - I suppose we might each come up with our own order, but here would be my guesses, with some comments:

1. Osgiliath
2. Umbar
3. Pelargir
4. Tharbad
5. Fornost
6. Dol Amroth

Osgiliath, I think of as a great city - like Rome or Babylon at the height of their empires.

Umbar, Pelagir and Tharbad were all port cities, and all very old. We might place them in about any order, but I think they'd be next in line after Osgiliath. After this, there's a sharp drop-off, but I think Annuminas ranked in this category before its abandonment.

Fornost is the capitol of the strongest northern kingdom - I think it's somewhat thriving, for its placement - but its placement is somewhat remote.

Dol Amroth is a mere guess. I'm also trying to remember what the Gondorians called their city at Rohan's first capital - before they built Edoras (did the Rohirrim call it Aldberg? Or was that the northern city they came from?). Anyway, Dol Amroth, Cameth Brin (taken together with Tanoth Brin), this Aldberg and any number of other cities we would imagine and place at various intersections of roads, or of rivers, or of river and road, might be in this class. (Something at Sarn Ford, and at Stonebows Bridge, as well as Bree and "Harnost")

Minas Anor I think was primarily a royal palace at first - and a summer palace from a certain point on - but may not have become a major city of any kind until Osgiliath was hit so hard by the Great Plague.

Minas Ithil I conceive of as merely a fortress of Gondor, after the Second Age ended. It probably had some kind of town associated with it, but I think would be of less significance than Minas Anor in this time - since that was the royal home of Anarion's line - while the ones who had some claim to Minas Ithil as a royal home had taken up residence far to the north.

[Duilin]

Aldburg was the name of a town in Eastfold, I think. It's a Germanic name, not Sindarin, so definitely not a Gondorian name. I wasn't aware that there was a Gondorian site in Rohan, besides Angrenost (Isengard) and Aglarond (Helm's Deep). I agree that there were probably a lot of towns at these crossroads type locations.

I'm not sure about Minas Anor and Minas Ithil. I agree that Ithil was probably smaller. Both were initially fortresses - Ithil to watch against Mordor, Anor against the unfriendly men of the White Mountains to the west. Obviously Ithil's status as a border town remained, but the p lace it guarded - Gorgoroth - seems to have been largely unpopulated for the first millennium or more of the third age, while Anor had ceased to be on the border at all. That being said, both retained Palantiri. The Anor stone seems particularly useless. Why not send it down to Pelargir or Umbar if Anor is merely a summer palace with a small town surrounding? It seems totally strange to have three of the seeing stones so close together. Obviously, from an external standpoint, we have to have Palantiri in Orthanc, Minas Anor, and Minas Ithil for purposes of the LOTR story, but internally the decision to use the stones in this way makes little sense. And in the North Kingdom, of course, stones were moved - the Annuminas stone seems to have been in Fornost from 861 (although it might have been later - I don't think Tolkien ever gave any real sense of at what point Annuminas became totally depopulated), and the Amon Sûl stone was there from 1409 (although, again, we have the weird situation of Arnor keeping both of its stones in one place, when one would imagine that it might have been more useful to put one of them in, say, Tyrn Gorthad, or Tharbad). But, anyway, for internal purposes I think the continued presence of stones at Minas Ithil and Minas Anor suggests they remained significant places.

Note also that each of Anor and Ithil were the central zone of provinces of the country - Anórien and Ithilien. As such, they must have been administrative centers, and would probably have been important market towns, as well. But yes, you're probably right that they were probably smaller than Umbar or Pelargir in the glory days of Gondor.

I'm not sure about Dol Amroth - we get very little sense of it at all from Tolkien's writing.